One month after the tax credit expired, the EV market is down—but winners and losers are already emerging
Now that we’re a month past the expiration of the federal EV tax credit, it’s the perfect time to assess the impact on the market.
Unsurprisingly, EV movement dropped sharply—down 56% per day in sales during October compared to before the tax credit announcement, and 71% lower than September’s rush to buy ahead of the deadline.
The shifts in brand performance are striking. Cadillac is the only brand selling more EVs in October than before the tax credit announcement. In contrast, nearly every other automaker saw significant declines—German and Japanese brands lost three-quarters or more of their EV sales. Toyota averaged just two (two!) EV sales per day, and Nissan only four, as both have largely stepped back from the segment for now.
In addition to Cadillac, Ford and Chevrolet led all brands, with more than 100 EV sales per day each, but those three brands are down a collective 38% from the pre-announcement period. Still, the domestic brands are at least showing that it is possible to still sell vehicles in this sector even after the federal subsidies disappeared.
Right now, there are more questions than answers. The post-credit market has exposed just how fragile EV demand is without government support—and how unevenly brands are positioned to survive. Can domestic automakers sustain their momentum, or was October merely a brief reprieve? And the Japanese and German brands, now nearly absent from the EV conversation—can they claw their way back, or have they ceded the field?
One thing is clear: the future of EV adoption now depends less on incentives and more on whether consumers are truly ready to go electric on their own.
Without subsidies to prop it up, the EV market’s next moves will reveal which brands—and which buyers—are truly committed to an electric future.
