In the early days of the tariff era, the auto industry responded to potential cost increases by adjusting discounts and incentive levels. Cloud Theory’s Average Marketed Price rose by $860 from March to April, but MSRP changes accounted for only a small portion of that month-over-month difference. That made sense at the time, as shifts in trade policy were still subject to delays, deferrals, and deliberation—OEMs weren’t yet locking in pricing changes to reflect higher costs.
Fast forward to August, however, and a different picture is emerging. While Average Marketed Prices have actually declined slightly since March and April (driven by a shift toward lower-priced models and trims), the MSRP changes between then and now have widened significantly. Heavy Duty Trucks, for example, saw a $568 increase in MSRP between March and April, but are now $3,297 higher in the first three weeks of August.
Some of this is attributable to the early stages of model year changeovers, but the majority reflects a broader formalization of price increases. Seventy-two percent of model/trim combinations experienced an MSRP jump between July and August MTD, signaling that OEMs are moving from transitory discounting to entrenched pricing actions that are far harder to unwind.
And as MYCOs advance, higher-than-normal increases are likely to be further baked into sticker prices to account for the now-solidified costs tied to these levies. What began as temporary tinkering with incentives is giving way to more permanent pricing structures.
While it’s still too early to know how far these increases will run, the pattern suggests that OEMs are shifting from short-term reactions to deliberate, enduring adjustments. The market may see further consequences as these changes take hold—raising the possibility that today’s sticker prices are just the starting point, not the limit.
Tempered discounting gave OEMs room to adapt; now they are moving to lock in a more lasting solution.